The Arrest Of Graham Linehan

To fully understand the arrest, you should know something of the background of transgender as it is recognised in the UK.

In April this year the Supreme Court ruled that the legal definition of a woman is determined by biological sex.

The court was asked to rule on this after the Scottish Government ruled that a person could reassign their gender and obtain a Gender Recognition Certificate after living as the opposite sex for three months. Previously a person had to live as the opposite sex for two years.

The laws of the Scottish Government are made under devolved powers, meaning they are subject to the decisions of the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom.

‘For Women Scotland’, is a campaign group that opposed reforms in Scotland that would allow individuals to change their recorded sex in legal documents by self-declaration.

They argued that sex-based protections should only apply to people born female, and so the matter came before the Supreme Court in London. 

The judges of the Supreme Court were asked to rule on the correct interpretation of “sex” and “woman” in the main piece of legislation setting out sex-based legal protections.

And they ruled that the definition of sex as used in the Equality Act 2010 is “binary” and decided by biology – a person who was not born as a biological female cannot obtain the legal protections the Act affords to women by changing their gender with a Gender Recognition Certificate.

That was a big upset for those who had argued that changing gender in the mind entitled a person to be regards as being of the opposite sex.

Commentators said that the tide had turned against what they thought was the blind woke culture.

Now to Graham Linehan’s arrest for a tweet.

Linehan was arrested On Monday 1st September under the Public Order Act on suspicion of inciting violence in a tweet he posted about trans people on X. This is the tweet:

“If a trans-identified male is in a female-only space, he is committing a violent, abusive act. Make a scene, call the cops and if all else fails, punch him in the balls.”  

People complained that the charge was a heavy-handed use of a law that was never meant to be used against the kind of tweet Lineham had posted, which they said was clearly not a real threat.

The real threat, they said, came from men who claimed to identify as women but on being allowed under the law to enter women-only spaces, had attacked women.

And recognise the context, they said, Linehan is a comedian. He was not being serious with his ‘punch him in the balls’ comment.

And Linehan is not just any comedian. He is the writer of Father Ted, a hugely successful comedy series on TV, and of other TV series.

He is also a successful author. His memoir, Tough Crowd: How I Made and Lost a Career in Comedy, reached number ten on the Sunday Times bestseller list. In it he talks about his fight against what he thinks is a warped ideology, and how that led to him becoming an anti-transgender activist.

So his tweet wasn’t a casual comment by someone with other things on his mind. It is part of who Linehan is.

So, supporters said, his tweet was meant to be taken seriously, but was never a real threat of physical violence.

In his blog, The Glinner Update, he described his arrest as follows:

 Something odd happened before I even boarded the flight in Arizona. When I handed over my passport at the gate, the official told me I didn’t have a seat and had to be re-ticketed. At the time, I thought it was just the sort of innocent snafu that makes air travel such a joy. But in hindsight, it was clear I’d been flagged. Someone, somewhere, probably wearing unconvincing make-up and his sister/wife’s/mum’s underwear, had made a phone call.

 The moment I stepped off the plane at Heathrow, five armed police officers were waiting. Not one, not two–five. They escorted me to a private area and told me I was under arrest for three tweets. In a country where paedophiles escape sentencing, where knife crime is out of control, where women are assaulted and harassed every time they gather to speak, the state had mobilised five armed officers to arrest a comedy writer for this tweet (and no, I promise you, I am not making this up.

 When I first saw the cops, I actually laughed. I couldn’t help myself. “Don’t tell me! You’ve been sent by trans activists” The officers gave no reaction and this was the theme throughout most of the day. Among the rank-and-file, there was a sort of polite bafflement. Entirely professional and even kind, but most had absolutely no idea what any of this was about.

 “Kind” because the officers saw how upset I was–when they began reading me my rights, the red mist descended and I came close to becoming one of those police body-cam videos where you can’t believe the perp isn’t just doing what he’s told–and they treated me gently after that. They even arranged for a van to meet me on the tarmac so I didn’t have to be perp-walked through the airport like a terrorist. Small mercies.

 At Heathrow police station, my belt, bag, and devices were confiscated. Then I was shown into a small green-tiled cell with a bunk, a silver toilet in the corner and a message from Crimestoppers on the ceiling next to a concave mirror that was presumably there to make you reflect on your life choices.

 By some miracle–probably because I hadn’t slept on the flight–I managed to doze off. After the premier economy seat in which I’d just spent ten hours, it was actually a relief to stretch out. That passed the time, though I kept waking up wondering if it was all actually happening.

 Later, during the interview itself, the tone shifted. The officer conducting it asked about each of the terrible tweets in turn, with the sort of earnest intensity usually reserved for discussing something serious like… oh, I dunno–crime? I explained that the ‘punch’ tweet was a serious point made with a joke. Men who enter women’s spaces ARE abusers and they need to be challenged every time. The ‘punch in the bollocks’ bit was about the height difference between men and women, the bollocks being closer to punch level for a woman defending her rights and certainly not a call to violence. (Not one of my best as one of the female officers said “We’re not THAT small”).

 He mentioned “trans people”. I asked him what he meant by the phrase. “People who feel their gender is different than what was assigned at birth.” I said “Assigned at birth? Our sex isn’t assigned.” He called it semantics, I told him he was using activist language. The damage Stonewall has done to the UK police force will take years to mend.

 Eventually, a nurse came to check on me and found my blood pressure was over 200–stroke territory. The stress of being arrested for jokes was literally threatening my life! So I was escorted to A&E, where I write this now after spending about eight hours under observation.

 The doctors suggested the high blood pressure was stress-related, combined with long-haul travel and lack of movement. I feel it may also have been a contributing factor that I have now spent eight years being targeted by trans activists working in tandem with police in a dedicated, perseistent harassment campaign because I refuse to believe that lesbians have cocks.

 The police themselves, for the most part, were consistently decent throughout this farce. Some were even Father Ted fans. Thank God the Catholic Church never had with the police the special relationship granted to trans activists. The male officers were mostly polite but clearly nonplussed by the politics of it all–just doing their jobs, however insane those jobs had become. The female officers seemed more tuned in to what was actually happening. One mentioned the Sandie Peggie case in a certain way, and I realised I was among friends, even if they couldn’t admit it.

 I looked at the single bail condition: I am not to go on Twitter. That’s it. No threats, no speeches about the seriousness of my crimes–just a legal gag order designed to shut me up while I’m the UK, and a demand I face a further interview in October.

 The civility of individual officers doesn’t alter the fundamental reality of what happened. I was arrested at an airport like a terrorist, locked in a cell like a criminal, taken to hospital because the stress nearly killed me, and banned from speaking online–all because I made jokes that upset some psychotic crossdressers. To me, this proves one thing beyond doubt: the UK has become a country that is hostile to freedom of speech, hostile to women, and far too accommodating to the demands of violent, entitled, abusive men who have turned the police into their personal goon squad.

Following the complaints about the heavy-handed use of the law, a Metropolitan Police Spokesman said, “The man in his 50s was arrested on suspicion of inciting violence. This is in relation to posts on X. After being taken to police custody, officers became concerned for his health and he was taken to hospital. 

“His condition is neither life-threatening nor life-changing. He has now been bailed pending further investigation. The arrest was made by officers from the MPS Aviation Unit.

 “It is routine for officers policing airports to carry firearms. These were not drawn or used at any point during the arrest.”

Then the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley, weighed in and said the decision to arrest Linehan “was made within existing legislation – which dictates that a threat to punch someone from a protected group could be an offence”.

Sir Mark said his officers “had reasonable grounds to believe an offence had been committed,” but that police more broadly had “been left between a rock and a hard place” when investigating online speech.

He continued: “I don’t believe we should be policing toxic culture wars debates and officers are currently in an impossible position.”

Sir Mark said police will have to “make similar decisions in future unless the law and guidance is changed or clarified”.

He said he hopes this happens “without delay”, but said the Met would be taking immediate action to update how it decides which cases warrant a police investigation.

Sir Mark said: “As an immediate way of protecting our officers from the situation we find ourselves in today, we will be putting in place a more stringent triaging process to make sure only the most serious cases are taken forward in future — where there is a clear risk of harm or disorder.”

The clarification he asked for came sooner than he thought, with a letter from Baroness Nicholson of Winterbourne, member of the House of Lords, to Sir Mark.

Here is her letter:

 4th September 2025
 Sir Mark Rowley
 Commissioner
 Metropolitan Police

 I have read your thoughtful and illuminating statement on the arrest of comedy writer, Graham Linehan, by five armed officers on the grounds that his tweets might incite violence.

 I abhor the attempt to scapegoat Parliament for the witless actions of your officers. I fear no amount of legislation could compensate for their apparent inability to exercise intelligent judgment. You say officers have “no choice but to record such incidents as crimes when they’re reported. Then they are obliged to follow all lines of enquiry and take action as appropriate.” Regrettably, Sir Mark, that is poppycock!

 One of the cited tweets ended with “Punch them in the balls.” Another ended with “Fuck em.” Are they both to be taken literally as incitements to violence? Do you or your officers sincerely contend that “Fuck em” might be meant to cause anyone to engage in sexual intercourse (whether or not consensually)?

 Do your colleagues require Parliament to legislate on the meaning of “Fuck em” and whether or not it should be taken literally? In the meantime, must all reported incidents be recorded as a crime before anyone engages their adult brain?

 I would hope your answer is “Obviously not,” but I cannot be confident. If your officers can identify one phrase as not meant literally, surely they ought to be able to do that with the other and dismiss the complaint.

 On this occasion the incidents were reported by former police constable Lynsay Watson; a transgender male dismissed for gross misconduct by Leicestershire Police as he waged a campaign of harassment against people with the legally protected belief that human beings cannot change sex.

 Your colleagues have allowed themselves to be exploited as tools in that continuing and orchestrated campaign.

 Watson has form. He has taken legal action against three police forces, the British Transport Police Federation, the Police Appeals Tribunal, the Ministry of Defence and sundry individuals who do not comply with his demands. Were your colleagues wary of being added to the list? Were they simply ignorant?

Or are they, as you assert, mere automatons impelled to act unthinkingly once their buttons are pushed? Whatever the case, no depth of detail in a Policing with Common Sense Bill will solve the problem.

 Instead of blaming Parliament for the inability of your officers to think for themselves intelligently, perhaps you might firmly tell them, please, to stop being stupid.

 Yours sincerely,
 Baroness Nicholson of Winterbourne

Linehan is next due on court on  29 October 2025, and I wonder whether the Prosecution will simply abandon the case before then.

And if it does go to trial, what judge would rule against Linehan, given the letter from Baroness Nicholson?

The world is relative, and what is unimportant to one might be very important to another. But the law has spoken and no amount of wishing will now make a person who changes gender be entitled to be treated as the opposite sex to the disadvantage of those born that sex.

Somehow, a lot of column inches have been devoted to gender. It has been like a runaway train that changed the minds of whole swathes of people. And those people who didn’t agree that the mind ruled biology were seen by some as backward thinking throwbacks to a more narrow minded time.

The Supreme Court justices were like engine drivers who put on the brakes against the tide. And suddenly a lot of people were glad the grown-ups spoke and they could go back to how it was before.

Still, you have to ask what needs are not being met? What needs should and what needs should not be recognised in this post-modern world where each person’s conscience is said to be the ultimate authority? 

In a post-modern world no one can appeal to a higher authority without risk of being labeled repressive.

The other side of the coin is that individual self-defined authority can be a mask for selfishness masquerading as freedom. 

And in this divide are those who believe that if they stamp their feet hard enough, the world will bend to their wishes.

Lucy Connolly’s Tweet

And then there is Lucy Connolly who tweeted:

“Mass deportation now. Set fire to all the fucking hotels full of the bastards for all I care. While you’re at it, take the treacherous government and politicians with them. I feel physically sick knowing what these families will now have to endure. If that makes me racist, so be it.”

She tweeted it after hearing that an immigrant had murdered three little girls and wounded eight others.

Three and a half hours later, she removed the tweet.

It turned out that the murderer wasn’t an illegal immigrant but born in the UK, the son of immigrants.

She was arrested for “publishing written material which was threatening, abusive or insulting intending thereby to stir up racial hatred or having regard to all the circumstances, whereby racial hatred was likely to be stirred up” and was convicted of inciting racial hatred under s19(1) Public Order Act 1986 and sentenced to 31 months in prison.

If Lineham’s tweet wasn’t meant to be taken literally, was Lucy Connolly’s tweet meant to be taken literally? Was her suggestion that illegal immigrants and the government and the politicians should be set on fire, a serious suggestion?

It fell foul of the law because there is a racial hatred element but did not fall foul of the law for the “government and “treacherous government and politicians” because there is no racial element for that part of the tweet.

How Did We Get Here and Who Are ‘We’?

The laws on racial abuse are a reflection of two things. One is the change from when Britain’s population was homogenous and almost everyone identified as a Christian.

The other is the need that was felt in Europe after the Second World War to make a binding statement on what is and what is not proper behaviour.

Britain drafted a lot of the documentation and in 1950 was a signatory to the European Convention On Human Rights.

Today all European countries are members of the ECHR except for Belarus, which was refused entry because of its human rights record, and Russia, which was kicked out in 2022 when it invaded The Ukraine.

Now fast forward to the 1960s, when the populations of former colonies came to Britain, and to France.

Portugal, Belgium, and the Netherlands took in nationals of former colonies, but none in the numbers that Britain and France took in.

The assumption was that people coming in would integrate. But for some groups it didn’t happen and hasn’t happened. And in the background was and is the changing perception of Islam in the world.

The British Government is talking about Britain leaving the ECHR unless it can be reformed, because when the Government wants to deport immigrants who have committed crimes, they find that the European Court rules against them for what the Government says are poor reasons.

That may be part of the reason why for years the authorities turned a blind eye to Moslem grooming gangs raping underage girls.

It took whistleblowers – Margaret Oliver, a Greater Manchester detective and Nazir Afzal, assistant Chief Crown Prosecutor – to expose what was going on.

There’s more. Former South Yorkshire Police officers have been arrested for blackmailing underage girls into sex with a threat of turning them over to the gangs if they did not comply.

Now, over 1,000 Pakistani men are under investigation in Greater Manchester and a similar number in a separate UK-wide investigation into rape by Moslem gangs with underage girls.

So it is not a surprise that some people have doubts about the equal application of the law to all, or the heavy-handed use of the law on easy targets while serious crimes go unchecked.

There are around four million Muslims, making up about 6% of the total UK population. So the numbers being investigated are just one in two thousand of that population.

But the nature of the crimes have set off something.

And on the other side, right-wing groups see their own opportunity to claim that they are simply being patriotic to oppose immigrants of all kinds.

Now with Gaza in the news, we see slogans and chants that have clearly breached the rules on hate speech, but the police have stood by passively.

The feeling is that the police have stood by because they are afraid of setting off riots when the offended claim they are the victim of racial abuse.

Then what are the police to do? Do they act, do they arrest? Do they risk riots?

And if they do arrest then it all has to be hammered out in court, with the fear that the cost would be enormous and the whole thing would drag on forever, and the it would foment more protests.

When Baroness Louise Casey issued her report commissioned by the Government on Moslem grooming gangs, she said that says the authorities avoided documenting the ethnicity of those involved.

She recommended that ethnicity should be recorded, and minority groups have already said this recommendation is in breach of the law and racial abuse.

So now, I think that what Sir Mark Rowley, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, is saying to the Government that they should draw a line in the sand that everyone can understand, and that means being more open about the root cause of problems.

The Government may already be giving new direction to the police.

The group Palestine Action was proscribed by the Government after its members broke into a military base and damaged equipment.

The group won the right to challenge the proscription and have its case heard in court.

The Government then won the right to argue that the group’s application should be blocked.

Until that is heard in court, the group is proscribed.

Now a couple of days ago, protestors marched in support of Palestine Action, and 890 people were arrested.

To muddy the waters and give another rallying cry, Banksy painted a mural on the wall of the Royal Courts of Justice in London showing a judge using his gavel to hammer a protester lying on the ground holding up an empty placard, insinuating that judges are agents of repression.

Not so. Judges are why Banksy can actually do what he does without a secret police uncovering his identity and spiriting him away to be executed extra-judicially, as might happen in some countries.

Drought In Iran

Tehran’s dams are currently at about 19% capacity. Because of Iran’s history as a funder of terrorism, it is tempting to see the drought as payback. This may well affect the extent to which others will help Iran in its crisis. And that leaves aside the question of whether any country can actually help.

To sat that Iran’s problems are because it is intensely urbanised, needs context. After all, the population density of Britain is nearly five times that of Iran.

The population of Iran is 91.57 million. The population of the Tehran is 9.6 million but the population of the greater metropolitan area is 16.8 million. That equates to more than 18% of the population of the country living in the capital.

The combined populations of Iran’s next six biggest cities – Mashhad Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Qom – totals another 16 million people. So that equates to more than a third of the population of the country living in the cities.

But urbanisation in Iran is recent. Poor harvests have caused a drift to the cities. And it has left a gaping hole in rural areas where agriculture is outdated and inefficient, and there’s no one to work the fields. Yet agriculture in Iran consumes 90% of the available water.

Seven Lean Years?

Iran has had five consecutive years of drought. The rainfall in the last year has dropped by 45% below the longterm average, and by spring of this year, over half of Iran’s reservoirs were empty.

Temperatures have been over 50 °C in parts of Iran, worsening the crisis and triggering power and water outages. The prediction is that Tehran could be out of water within weeks. What happens when millions of people in the cities have no water?

Since May 2025, widespread protests have erupted across Iran over water and power shortages, particularly in the poorest areas, with a risk of social and political destabilisation.

Syria

Between 2006 and 2010, Syria had its worst ever drought. The UN estimated that around 800,000 farmers lost their livelihoods because of it. Crop failures triggered millions of Syrians coming to the cities. That led to protests, and from there to State repression and from there to civil war.

Afghanistan

Within the last year, Afghanistan built the Pashdan dam on the Harirud River that has dried up the Harirud border basin beyond the dam and threatened the city of Mashhad in Iran. Iran objects to the denial of access to a water source that it is says is intended to be for the benefit of the region. But what is it going to do?

It’s significant for Iran because the population of the Mashhad metropolitan area is 3.46 million, making it the second largest city in Iran after Tehran.

And it is not the only country affected by Afghanistan’s plans. When the Qosh Tepa canal is completed and starts diverting water to the north of the country, it will threaten the water supplies of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

In the longer term, what might happen? Social breakdown iand regime change in Iran might be a consequence of drought but it doesn’t solve the problem of lack of water.

Perhaps an alliance of Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in a war against Afghanistan. It’s all possible, although how anyone could breach the Pashdan dam to restore the access is a nice question because it is a huge earth structure.

Perhaps Iran might accept technological help from Israel, the world’s leader in desalination. Iran has access to the Caspian Sea, which is about a third as saline as the oceans and you would think that is perfect for desalination. Israel has offered to help Iran with desalination but Iran has so far refused. That would be an interesting turnaround if Iran’s future was made more secure by Israel.

Global Reach

The Neutrality Acts of 1935, 1936, 1937, and 1939 were intended by their very name to prevent the United States from being drawn into foreign wars. The Acts banned the sale of arms to warring nations and restricted American citizens from traveling on belligerent ships. The Acts were watered down in 1939 by an amendment that allowed the U.S. to sell arms to nations at war provided the buyers paid cash and moved the goods themselves.

On an historial note, the restriction on American citizens traveling on belligerent ships in the Neutrality Acts was explicitly intended to prevent a repeat of the Lusitania incident that had drawn the U.S. into World War I after a German submarine sank the British ocean liner RMS Lusitania, killing 1,198 people, including 128 Americans.

Lend-Lease Act

On March 11, 1941, President Roosevelt signed the Lend-Lease Act, effectively ending a decade of declared U.S. neutrality and isolationism. It allowed the President to “sell, transfer title to, exchange, lease, lend, or otherwise dispose of” military aid to any country whose defense was considered vital to the United States. The first beneficiary was Britain, followed by China in April 1941, and the Soviet Union after the German invasion in June.

In deciding which countries should benefit from Lend-Lease, the United States was signalling its strategic sympathies and future commitments, and in effect drawing the battle lines for future conflicts.

Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931 and China proper in 1937. So when the U.S. extended Lend-Lease to China it sent a clear message to Japan.

The U.S. embargo on oil and other critical materials and the freezing Japanese assets after Japan invaded Indochina in July 1941, pointed directly to the coming inevitability of war between Japan and the United States.

Trump, The Strange Isolationist

Over the past handful of years, commentators have described Trump’s isolationist policies with his threats to pull out of Nato because the U.S. was saddled with too much of the cost. The result is that European nations have increased defence spending. You can discern two reasons. One is that they don’t want to lose the USA. The other is that if they are unsuccessful and they do lose the USA, then they want to be strong enough on their own to counter any threat.

The notion of being ‘isolationist’ doesn’t square with the deal that the U.S. has struck for the extraction of minerals in eastern Ukraine. That is, the deal is in place on a piece of territory that stands directly in the way of Russia’s ambitions under Putin.

And Trump has not been shy of declaring his position over Gaza, to simply take it over and administer it.

Nor has he backed off confronting Iran or in forging stronger links with Saudi Arabia and the wild card Qatar.

And then there’s his showman sleight of hand over intentions in Canada and Greenland.

Keep them guessing, is how it seems to me. But for a supposed isolationist he has a global reach with American fingers in a lot of international pies.

Update

I am updating this on the evening of 15 August 2025, before whatever agreement Putin and Trump may come to over Ukraine has been made public. Commentators are saying Trump is a fool, a plaything in Putin’s hands. If no deal is struck – what will Trump the supposed isolationist do?

Ukraine, Russia, NATO and The West

What follows here is a transcript of a YouTube Video ‘Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Explains How The Ukraine Russia War Started‘.

It is not without its critics. The Washington Post fact-checked a four-minute video by RFK Jr., finding it contained “so much misinformation and Russian talking points that it flunked the fact test.” I have put a fairly full version of that analysis after RFK’s talk.

Then follows the text of a talk by Jeffrey Sachs, an American economist and public policy analyst, that broadly follows RFK’s line.

And then my comments.

RFK’s Talk

“Every day Putin says I want to settle the war, let’s negotiate. And Zelensky has said we’re not going to negotiate, but Zelensky didn’t want to start that way. I don’t want to belabour the history, but Russia was invaded three times through Ukraine. The last time Hitler killed one out of every seven Russians. They don’t want to have Ukraine join NATO.

So when the wall came down in Europe, Gorbachev destroyed himself politically by doing something that was very, very courageous.

He went to Bush and he said, I’m going to allow you to reunify Germany under a NATO army. I’m going to remove 450,000 Soviet troops. But I want your commitment. After that, you will not move NATO one inch to the east. And we solemnly swore we wouldn’t do it.

Well then in 1997, Brzezinski was the first of the neocons and he said we’re gonna move NATO 1,000 miles to the east and take 15 countries into it and surround the Soviet Union. So then we not only move it into 14 new nations, but we unilaterally walk away from our two nuclear weapons treaties with the Russians. And we put Aegis missile systems in Romania and Poland 12 minutes from Moscow.

When Russians did that to Cuba in 62, we came this close to nuclear war until they removed them. So the Russians don’t want nukes 400 miles from Moscow.

We then overthrow the Government of the Ukraine, in 2014, their elected government – and put in a Western sympathetic government. Russia then has to go into Crimea because they have a port. It’s their only warm water port. And they know the new government that we just installed is gonna invite the US Navy into their port.

So Russia then went into Crimea without firing a shot because the people of Crimea are Russian. Then the new Ukrainian government we installed started killing ethnic Russians in Donbas and Luhansk and they voted to leave and join Russia. Putin said I don’t want them. Let’s give them protection and give them some semi autonomy and make an agreement to keep NATO out of Ukraine.

That treaty was written by Germany, France, Russia and England, the Minsk Accords and the Ukrainian parliament which is controlled by ultra Rightists, and that’s a nice way of talking about them, refused to sign it.

So Zelensky runs in 2019. He’s an actor. Why did he get elected with 70% of the vote? Because he promised to sign the Minsk Accords. He promised peace. He gets in there and he pivots. Nobody can explain why but we know why. Because he was threatened with death by ultra Rightists in his government and a withdrawal of support by the United States by Victoria Nuland, who’s the leading neocon in the State Department. We told him he could not sign it.

So then the Russians go in, they don’t send a big army. They only send 40,000 people. It’s a nation of 44 million people. They clearly do not intend to conquer Ukraine, but they want us back at the negotiating table. We won’t allow Zelensky to go back. So he goes to Israel and Turkey and says, will you please help me negotiate a treaty, the Russians just want a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join NATO? Zelensky signs the treaty. Putin’s people signed the treaty and Putin starts withdrawing the Russian troops in good faith.

And what happens? Joe Biden sends Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, over to Ukraine in April and forces him to tear up the treaty. And since then, 450,000 kids have died, who none of them should have died. Every one Russian that dies, five to eight Ukrainians died and they don’t have any men left. We’re giving them all these weapons, but they don’t have men left. It’s a catastrophe and we look kind of like the aggressor. That’s the way the rest of the world sees it.”

The Washington Post

Here is the Washington Post point by point on why RFK’s analysis flunked the fact test.

With regard to the claim that “Russia was invaded three times through Ukraine. The last time Hitler killed one out of every seven Russians.”
It’s unclear what the three invasions refer to. Napoleon didn’t invade via Ukraine, and while WWII did cause immense Soviet losses—roughly one-seventh of the population—the phrasing is vague and misleading.

With regard to the claim that Gorbachev told President Bush that NATO would not move “one inch to the east,”, there is no record of such a promise. Gorbachev himself said in 2014 that NATO expansion “was not discussed at all” during the negotiations. Other documents show that NATO expansion was not a central topic, and Gorbachev later indicated that Eastern European nations could choose their alliances.

With regard to calling Brzezinski the “first neocon” who said they’d expand NATO to “surround the Soviet Union.” no such quote or phrase exists. Brzezinski did support NATO expansion—but using “neocon” in that context is inaccurate and historically misleading.

With regard to the claim that deploying Aegis missile systems in Romania and Poland near Moscow is analogous to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the comparison is false. Aegis systems are defensive, non-nuclear systems, unlike the Soviet nuclear missiles placed in Cuba.

With regard to the claim that the US brought about the 2014 Ukraine Government Overthrow, Viktor Yanukovych was removed by a unanimous parliamentary vote after security forces killed protesters. There’s no credible evidence of direct U.S. orchestration of the removal.

With regard to the claim that Russia invaded Crimea to protect its only warm-water port, fearing the U.S. Navy might gain access, Crimea had been a Russian warm-water port since the 18th century, and newer technologies allow Russia to maintain ports like St. Petersburg and Vladivostok year-round. There’s no evidence Ukraine planned to offer Sevastopol to the U.S. Navy.

With regard to the claim that the Ukrainian government began killing ethnic Russians in Donbas and that people in that region hen voted to join Russia, Russia deployed troops into Donetsk and Luhansk regions, establishing separatist territories. Elections held under Russian supervision are not credible.

With regard to the claim that Russia proposed autonomy under the Minsk treaties and that the Ukrainian parliament refused to sign them because it was controlled by ultra-rightists, the Minsk agreements were signed by representatives including Russian and Ukrainian officials and OSCE. They weren’t parliamentary votes, and saying Kyiv rejected them because of extremist influence is misleading.

With regard to the claim that Zelensky was elected on a promise to sign the Minsk Accord, Zelensky’s platform mainly focused on economic reform and anti-corruption, not signing Minsk. He did express interest in a later Steinmeier formula,’ which triggered protests among nationalists.

With regard to the claim that Nuland, described as a neocon threatened Zelensky, stopping him from signing Minsk, Nuland was not in government until 2021; she had no role in 2014–15 Minsk talks. Describing her as the leading neocon is false.

With regard to the claim that Zelensky sought peace, both nations signed a treaty keeping NATO out and that Biden sent Johnson to tear it up, no such treaty was ever signed. There were tentative agreements in early 2022, but nothing binding. Johnson’s alleged involvement is described as “total nonsense and Russian propaganda.”

Jeffrey Sachs’s Version

Jeffrey Sachs is an American economist and public policy analyst, and in a talk he gave he said as follows, and you will pick up that he and RFK take broadly the same line.

It started in 1990, when US Secretary of State James Baker said to Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move one inch eastward… The US then cheated on this, starting in 1994, when Clinton signed off on a plan to expand NATO all the way to Ukraine. The expansion of NATO started in 1999 with Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. Then, the US led the bombing of Serbia in 1999. That was the use of NATO to bomb a European capital for 78 straight days to break the country apart. The Russians didn’t like that very much, but even Putin started out pro-European and pro-American. He considered whether to join NATO when there was still the idea of some kind of mutually respectful relationship.

In 2002, the US unilaterally walked out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. What it did was trigger the US putting in missile systems in Eastern Europe that Russia views as a dire, direct threat to national security, by making possible a decapitation strike of missiles that are a few minutes away from Moscow. In 2004-2005, the US engaged in a soft regime change in Ukraine, the so-called First Color Revolution. In 2009, Yanukovych won the election and became president in 2010 on the basis of neutrality in Ukraine. In 2014, the US participated actively in the overthrow of Yanukovych. Nuland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine…talked about regime change. So they made the new government!

The US then said ‘now NATO’s really going to enlarge.’ Putin kept saying ‘stop, you promised no NATO enlargement.’ Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, seven more countries in the ‘not one inch eastward.’ In 2021, Putin put on the table a draft Russian-US security agreement.

The basis of it was no NATO enlargement. The special military operations started, and five days later Zelenskyy said ‘okay, okay, neutrality.’ And then the US and Britain said no way, you guys fight on. We’ve got your back. That’s 600,000 deaths now of Ukrainians since Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv to tell them to be brave. Absolutely ghastly. We’re not dealing with, as we’re told every day, this madman like Hitler. This is complete bogus, fake history that is a purely PR narrative of the US government. We’re playing games here. So God forbid a nuclear power comes at us. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but we came at them.

The Opposite View

The West’s view of James Baker’s promise to Gorbachev is that no formal treaty was ever signed restricting NATO expansion, and that the former satellite states wanted to be in NATO because of historical fears of Russian aggression. Further, that NATO always had an open door policy and could and would not refuse an application when it was the democratic wish of the population provided the country met the criteria of being a democratic non-repressive regime.

The 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia during the Kosovo War was a humanitarian intervention to stop ethnic cleansing in Kosovo and justified despite the lack of UN approval. It did not signify a breakaway NATO intent on reshaping Europe without UN approval.

The U.S. Withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty was in response to new emerging threats from North Korea and Iran and that missiles were never aimed at Russia.

The first ‘colour revolution’ of 2004-5 in Ukraine was a democratic uprising against election fraud, a victory for democracy and self-determination and not a U.S.led operation.

The 2010 victory by Yanukovych in Ukraine was never denied but his legitimacy ended when he cracked down on protests about corruption. That led to the 2014 Euromaidan movement, a popular, grassroots uprising against corruption and Russian influence. The US supported the Maidan Movement but it did not orchestrate a coup and deny blocking peace proposals through Boris Johnson or otherwise.

Conclusion

How can an observer conclude anything when each event is seen through different lenses? The Western perspective emphasises democracy, sovereignty, and Russian aggression. The Russians see broken promises, and NATO encroachment through Western-backed regime changes.

Add to this the fact that a lot of the points made by both sides are ‘who said or didn’t say what to who and with what intent’. Trying to get to the bottom of that is a fruitless task.

And questions about an alleged US government overthrow of Ukraine’s Government is by its nature clothed in secrecy and ripe for claims both ways.

But the big question for me is whether Aegis missiles could carry nuclear warheads. And the answer seems to be that they could not as currently deployed in Europe but technically the system could launch nuclear-capable missiles if modified. The basis for the claim is that the Mk 41 VLS launcher is the same launcher used on U.S. Navy ships, which can launch a variety of missiles, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, and that certain Tomahawk variants historically had nuclear capability.

Yes, from the US point of view, Russia itself is not to be trusted and the more contained it can be, the better. But I don’t see any way around seeing through Russia’s eyes that the missiles are a threat right on their doorstep. And that is a recipe for distrust.

Where do we go from here? The world has become smaller. COVID made it obvious how interdependent we are. Time for people to wake up and behave as though from the point of view of the whole, and not of a faction.